Temperaturas medidas com termómetros
O físico checo Luboš Motl publicou uma nota testemunhando mais um erro do GISS – Goddard Institute for Space Studies. O erro foi descoberto no relatório de Outubro de 2008, deste instituto da NASA.
Leia-se o que diz Luboš no seu blog:
“Hansen: Russia's anomaly warms by 25 degrees F a month
While the satellite data indicate that the October anomaly was cooler than in the previous month, James Hansen's GISS … claims that it was a whopping 0.28 °C warmer than in September 2008, reaching the third warmest temperature anomaly ever (after Jan 2007 and Feb 1998).
Because it seems somewhat surprising to accumulate a discrepancy of more than 0.3 °C between two methodologies in as little as one month, Steve McIntyre looked at more detailed data leading to the GISS's final figure.
What he and a reader found was that the GISS October absolute temperature reading from 10 Russian and post-Soviet stations coincided with the figure from the previous month, September 2008. That's quite shocking because October is almost always 12 °C cooler than the previous September.
These numbers from Olenek, Russia are particularly telling:
Year : JUL : AUG : SEP : OCT : NOV : DEC
2006 :16.9 : 11.5 : 4.4 : -14.6 : -27.7 : -29.1
2007 :13.5 : 11.3 : 3.1 : -9.0 : -24.8 : 999.9
2008 :13.1 : 12.1 : 3.1 : 3.1 : 999.9 : 999.9
Ignore the 999.9 °C temperature from December 2007 (even though Hansen's Al Gore Rhythm may count is as a real number) and check that October 2008 happened to be exactly as warm as September 2008 which happened to be exactly as warm as September 2007.
October 2008 "was" 12.1 °C warmer than October 2007 and 17.7 °C warmer than October 2006. Not bad. If you ask whether it is a coincidence and suggest that the October was really hot in Olenek, let me tell you that 10 post-Soviet stations have the same "Sep=Oct" coincidence.
Indeed, September 2008 is their hottest October on record. The October temperature +3.1 °C in Olenek doesn't look quite consistent with the current temperature in Olenek which is -28 °C when I am writing this sentence. It is predicted to drop to -33 °C on the Day After Tomorrow.”
Entretanto, a equipa de James Hansen corrigiu a curva das temperaturas depois de conhecer as críticas. Por outro lado, sabe-se que as temperaturas de Olenek têm originado vários erros como ser pode ler no blog “Errors in IPCC climate science”.
As temperaturas medidas com termómetros são susceptíveis de mais erros frequentes e apresentam menor grau de confiança do que as medidas pelos satélites. Além de que têm uma distribuição espacial não homogénea. Não cobrem convenientemente o Globo, nomeadamente os Pólos.
Os radiómetros dos satélites têm problemas de calibração e orientação em relação aos raios solares mas que se resolvem, normalmente, com mais facilidade.
Resume-se seguidamente as principais origens, países e tipos de medição das temperaturas médias globais. Recorde-se que estas temperaturas têm, essencialmente, significado estatístico.
Origem :País :Tipo
HadCRUT3v :Reino Unido :termómetros de superfície
GISS (NASA) :EUA :idem
NOAA :EUA :id.
RSS :EUA :radiómetros de troposfera
UAH :EUA :idem
Com:
HadCRUT3v – Hadley (Center) Climatic Research Unit (versão T3v)
GISS – Goddard Institute for Space Studies
NASA – National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
RSS – Rotating Shadowband Spectrometer
UAH – University of Alabama in Huntsville.
Leia-se o que diz Luboš no seu blog:
“Hansen: Russia's anomaly warms by 25 degrees F a month
While the satellite data indicate that the October anomaly was cooler than in the previous month, James Hansen's GISS … claims that it was a whopping 0.28 °C warmer than in September 2008, reaching the third warmest temperature anomaly ever (after Jan 2007 and Feb 1998).
Because it seems somewhat surprising to accumulate a discrepancy of more than 0.3 °C between two methodologies in as little as one month, Steve McIntyre looked at more detailed data leading to the GISS's final figure.
What he and a reader found was that the GISS October absolute temperature reading from 10 Russian and post-Soviet stations coincided with the figure from the previous month, September 2008. That's quite shocking because October is almost always 12 °C cooler than the previous September.
These numbers from Olenek, Russia are particularly telling:
Year : JUL : AUG : SEP : OCT : NOV : DEC
2006 :16.9 : 11.5 : 4.4 : -14.6 : -27.7 : -29.1
2007 :13.5 : 11.3 : 3.1 : -9.0 : -24.8 : 999.9
2008 :13.1 : 12.1 : 3.1 : 3.1 : 999.9 : 999.9
Ignore the 999.9 °C temperature from December 2007 (even though Hansen's Al Gore Rhythm may count is as a real number) and check that October 2008 happened to be exactly as warm as September 2008 which happened to be exactly as warm as September 2007.
October 2008 "was" 12.1 °C warmer than October 2007 and 17.7 °C warmer than October 2006. Not bad. If you ask whether it is a coincidence and suggest that the October was really hot in Olenek, let me tell you that 10 post-Soviet stations have the same "Sep=Oct" coincidence.
Indeed, September 2008 is their hottest October on record. The October temperature +3.1 °C in Olenek doesn't look quite consistent with the current temperature in Olenek which is -28 °C when I am writing this sentence. It is predicted to drop to -33 °C on the Day After Tomorrow.”
Entretanto, a equipa de James Hansen corrigiu a curva das temperaturas depois de conhecer as críticas. Por outro lado, sabe-se que as temperaturas de Olenek têm originado vários erros como ser pode ler no blog “Errors in IPCC climate science”.
As temperaturas medidas com termómetros são susceptíveis de mais erros frequentes e apresentam menor grau de confiança do que as medidas pelos satélites. Além de que têm uma distribuição espacial não homogénea. Não cobrem convenientemente o Globo, nomeadamente os Pólos.
Os radiómetros dos satélites têm problemas de calibração e orientação em relação aos raios solares mas que se resolvem, normalmente, com mais facilidade.
Resume-se seguidamente as principais origens, países e tipos de medição das temperaturas médias globais. Recorde-se que estas temperaturas têm, essencialmente, significado estatístico.
Origem :País :Tipo
HadCRUT3v :Reino Unido :termómetros de superfície
GISS (NASA) :EUA :idem
NOAA :EUA :id.
RSS :EUA :radiómetros de troposfera
UAH :EUA :idem
Com:
HadCRUT3v – Hadley (Center) Climatic Research Unit (versão T3v)
GISS – Goddard Institute for Space Studies
NASA – National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
RSS – Rotating Shadowband Spectrometer
UAH – University of Alabama in Huntsville.
posted by Rui G. Moura at 15:36
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